"Globally, each second, we dump over 1000 tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and, each second, about 300 tons of that carbon dioxide is going into the oceans."
In 1992, scientists didn't talk about global climate change. Instead they talked about global warming or the Greenhouse Effect, which in his Dictionary of Scientific Literacy, Richard Brennan defined as "The process of trapping heat within the Earth's atmosphere because of the billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other gases that humankind emits into the atmosphere each year, and the resultant gradually increasing global temperatures."
These days we call this the enhanced greenhouse effect as opposed to the natural greenhouse effect.
Twenty years ago, if you were scientifically literate you would know that greenhouse gases "are an inevitable by-product of the burning of fossil fuels--coal, oil and natural gas. In the upper atmosphere, these gases act like a blanket, trapping heat and radiating part of it back down to the surface of the Earth. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 80 percent since the Industrial Revolution."
That 80 percent figure is not correct, however. Looks like Brennan made a math error. He got it backwards. Instead of 80, he should have said 20. Our current understanding is that CO2 levels in the atmosphere were about 280 parts per million for about 10,000 to 12,000 years as the last ice age ended and prior to our Industrial Revolution that began approximately 250 years ago. In 1992, CO2 levels were "only" as high as 356.38 ppm or about 21 percent higher than the historical norm.
As of June of 2012, we have reached 395.77 ppm or about a 30 percent increase. While some claim this is not a big deal, it is still higher than it has been for at least the last 800,000 years, a fact that has climate scientists very worried.
At our current rate of pollution, we should easily pass the 50 percent mark in the next 10-12 years. We should arrive at approximately 450 ppm by 2040 and 550 ppm by the end of the century, levels associated with catastrophic effects on the climate and all forms of life. We are accelerating toward these dark targets when scientists are warning that our safe target is closer to 350 ppm, which is where we stood back in 1988, when again, Hansen first warned us of what was coming if we ignored his warning which we did, which we have, which we are and which we will forevermore ignore until we awaken from this stupid slumber.
Brennan got the rest of his Greenhouse Effect entry mostly correct. He wrote, "About two-thirds of this increase is due to fuel burning. The remainder of the carbon dioxide buildup is from the massive deforestation that has occurred during the past 200 years. Predictions of future climate warnings are based on estimates of how fast greenhouse gases will continue to build up in the atmosphere. These predictions are inexact, but if the current rate of population growth and per capita fossil-fuel use is projected, in about the year 2031, humanity will have doubled the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide as compared to its value at the start of the Industrial Revolution."
All of this is right except for that date of 2031, which is less than 20 years from now. Most scientists now believe we may not see a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere (from 280 ppm to 560 ppm) until the end of this century. "By the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm. This is an increase of 90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750."
Not that the atmosphere cares about this magic number. We have not quite surpassed 400 ppm and we are already seeing significant impacts. We may not survive to ever see 560 ppm.
Recently, Michael Oppenheimer, one of the world's top climate scientists and a Princeton University geosciences and international affairs professor said we are already in trouble. He said, "What we're seeing really is a window into what global warming really looks like. It looks like heat. It looks like fires. It looks like this kind of environmental disasters."
Seth Borenstein with the AP wrote, "That was before the East Coast was hit with triple-digit temperatures and before a derecho - a large, powerful and long-lasting straight-line wind storm - blew from Chicago to Washington. The storm and its aftermath killed more than 20 people and left millions without electricity. Experts say it had energy readings five times that of normal thunderstorms."
"Fueled by the record high heat, this was among the strongest of this type of storm in the region in recent history, said research meteorologist Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storm Laboratory in Norman, Okla. Scientists expect 'non-tornadic wind events' like this one and other thunderstorms to increase with climate change because of the heat and instability, he said.
"Such patterns haven't happened only in the past week or two. The spring and winter in the U.S. were the warmest on record and among the least snowy, setting the stage for the weather extremes to come, scientists say."
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