Massive changes in cattle rearing and consumption are needed to cut nitrous oxide emissions.
New research outlines steps need to reach IPCC goals
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY â€" Stabilizing heat-trapping nitrous oxide levels in the atmosphere will require fundamental shifts in food production and consumption, according to Woods Hole Research Center scientist Eric Davidson, who outlined steps needed to meet goals set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Reporting in the April 13 edition of Environmental Research Letters, Davidson said the developed world needs to cut per capita meat consumption by 50 percent, along with similar cuts in the industrial and agricultural sectors.
Those goals may seem far-fetched, but once the world understands the dangers of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations, there may be chance of making the changes, Davidson said, comparing the issue to smoking in public places.
“If you had asked me 30 years ago if smoking would be banned in bars I would have laughed and said that would be impossible in my lifetime, and yet it has come true,†he said.
“Are similar changes possible for diet? That will depend not only on education about diet, but also upon prices of meat. Some agricultural economists think that the price of meat is going to go way up, so that per capita consumption will go down, but those are highly uncertain projections,†he said.
Nitrous oxide is the third-highest contributor to climate change behind carbon dioxide and methane. Total emissions from human sources amount to about 6 million metric tons, compared to 10 billion metric tons of carbon as CO2.
The main sources of nitrous oxide are from the spreading of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers onto agricultural soils and storage and use of livestock manure. The nitrogen contained in fertilizers and manure is broken down by microbes that live in the soil and released into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide.
Davidson said he thinks N2O emissions can be reduced through better management of fertilizer and manure sources, as well as reducing the developed world’s per capita meat consumption to relieve pressure on fertilizer demand and reduce growth in the amount of manure being produced.
A draft of a recent IPCC report outlines four alternative scenarios for reducing greenhouse gases. Three of the less aggressive scenarios could be met by reducing meat consumption, improving agricultural practices or reducing emissions from industry.
The most aggressive scenario would stabilize nitrous oxide concentrations by 2050, but can only be met if a 50 per cent reduction, or improvement, for each of the above is achieved.
Davidson based his calculations on data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation, which assumes that the global population will increase to 8.9 billion by 2050 and the daily calorific intake per capita will increase to 3130 kcal. The FAO assumes that average meat consumption of each person in the developed world will rise from 78 kg per year in 2002 to 89 kg per year in 2030 and from 28 kg per year in 2002 to 37 kg per year for each person in the developing world.
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Filed under: agriculture, climate and weather, Environment, global warming Tagged: | agriculture, climate, global warming, greenhouse gases, Nitrous oxide
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