Belief in global warming evidence changes with the weather say researchers - Examiner.com

According to researchers, which way the public opinion winds blow on the issue of global warming is based on the current weather where live for as many as one American in twenty. Patrick Egan of New York University and Megan Mullin of Temple University teamed up to try to see if current weather had any significant impact on public opinions about whether global warming exists. The answer is yes, furthermore, they say, the more extreme the current weather, the greater the influence on people’s opinion.

Egan and Mullin used data from 5 separate Pew Research surveys asking whether there was “solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?” They took the results of those surveys and matched them up with the current weather in each respondent’s zip code.

They found that if the weather had been unusually hot in that zip code, then there was a statistically significant jump in the number of people saying that there was indeed solid evidence of global warming, while unusually cold temperatures shifted viewpoints toward disbelieving that there was solid evidence of global warming. Even after correcting for political attitudes and geography, the results held.

Egan and Mullin wrote, "Under typical circumstances, the effects of temperature fluctuations on opinion are swiftly wiped out by new weather patterns. More sustained periods of unusual weather cause attitudes to change both to a greater extent and for a longer period of time. However, even these effects eventually decay, leaving no long-term impact of weather on public opinion."

A spike of just 3 degrees over normal for three days shiften public opinion by 1%, while extended or severe heat waves of 10 degrees or more above normal raised positive responses by 5-5.9%.

The effect, however, seemed to be temporary. If it had been 12 days or more since the abnormal weather, the positive or negative influence on belief in global warming science completely dissipated.

With one in twenty Americans making up their mind on global warming, albeit temporarily, based on looking at the current readings of the thermometer outside their window, it's little wonder that there seems to be confusion on the issue.

This year, global temperatures are running above average, according to NOAA, with June 2012 coming in as the fourth warmest June on record. For the contiguous United States, the first six months of 2012 have been the warmest ever on record, says NOAA. Given the data from Egan and Mullen's study, public opinion on global warming evidence must be heating up as well.