Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Aerosmith: Second Leg of 'The Global Warming Tour' - JamBase

TICKETS GO ON SALE SEPTEMBER 24

Aerosmith

Legendary rockers Aerosmith, Steven Tyler (vocals), Joe Perry (guitar), Brad Whitford (guitar), Tom Hamilton (bass) and Joey Kramer (drums) return for the second leg of The Global Warming Tour launching November 8. The month-long, 14-city arena tour will take the band to New York City (Madison Square Garden), Los Angeles (Staples Center) and Las Vegas (MGM Grand Garden Arena), among other cities. They’re fully armed with career-defining hits and blazing songs from their new album Music From Another Dimension, out November 6 on Columbia Records.

The Live Nation-produced tour will include support act Cheap Trick. Tickets go on sale Monday, September 24 at 10:00 AM (local time) at www.LiveNation.com. American Express card members can get advance tickets beginning this Wednesday, September 19 at 10:00 AM (local time). For VIP ticket packages, including opportunities to meet band members, backstage tours, great tickets and more, visit www.Aeroforceone.com. In addition, a Facebook pre-sale begins Friday, September 21; fans who visit www.livenation.com/aerosmith and RSVP to the presale will have early access to tickets.

Aerosmith Tour Dates

  • Thu 11/8 Oklahoma City, OK Chesapeake Energy Arena
  • Sun 11/11 Wichita, KS INTRUST Bank Arena
  • Wed 11/14 Kansas City, MO Spring Center
  • Fri 11/16 Austin, TX Frank Erwin Center
  • Tue 11/20 New York, NY Madison Square Garden
  • Fri 11/23 Atlantic City, NJ Revel Resorts â€" Ovation Hall
  • Sun 11/25 Columbus, OH Nationwide Arena
  • Tue 11/27 Toronto, ON Air Canada Centre
  • Sat 12/1 Las Vegas, NV MGM Grand Garden Arena
  • Mon 12/3 Los Angeles, CA STAPLES Center
  • Thu 12/6 New Orleans, LA New Orleans Arena
  • Sun 12/9 Fort Lauderdale, FL BB&T Center
  • Tue 12/11 Tampa, FL Tampa Bay Times Forum
  • Thu 12/13 Nashville, TN Bridgestone Arena

Aerosmith Tour Dates :: Aerosmith News

PBS Attacked for Allowing Global Warming Skeptic to Speak - NewsBusters (blog)

Noel Sheppard's picture

If you had any doubts about the level of zealotry involved in today's global warming movement, they likely will be erased by the goings on at PBS the past few days.

Since allowing well-known climate realist Anthony Watts on NewsHour Monday to voice his views on this controversial issue, PBS has been under attack for doing so (videos follows with transcripts and commentary).

The ten-minute segment began:

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now to the debate over the magnitude of climate change, its impact, and the human role in it.

Typically, the battle plays out among prominent climate scientists and a vocal group of skeptics. But one skeptic's recent public conversion is adding new fuel to that fire and sparking criticism from both sides.

"NewsHour" correspondent Spencer Michels has the story.

SPENCER MICHELS: Physicist Richard Muller and his daughter, Elizabeth, a mathematician, are not exactly household names.

But in the world of climate change, where most scientists and a much smaller group of skeptics remain bitterly divided over their assessment of what's happening to the planet, Richard Muller has long been on the side of those who deny climate change is happening.

So, when he published an op-ed in The New York Times last month saying he was no longer a skeptic, it captured national attention and sparked angry reaction on both sides of the climate fence.

Here were Watts's contributions:

SPENCER MICHELS, HOST: Yet, many of those believers were annoyed that Muller's conversion got more attention in the media than their reports have gotten in the past. They dismissed him as being publicity-hungry and adding nothing new to the debate.

Climate modeler and British Green Party member William Connolley called Muller's study rubbish, saying they hadn't added any knowledge to what had been done before. Skeptics were even more dismissive of Muller`s work.

Judith Curry, professor of earth sciences at Georgia Tech, who suspects natural variability accounts for climate change, not human- produced CO2, said Muller`s analysis is "way oversimplistic and not at all convincing."

Even former ally Anthony Watts thinks Muller got it wrong. Watts works five hours from Muller in Chico, California. There, he runs a company supplying data and display systems to television weather forecasters and private individuals. He was trained as a broadcast meteorologist, though he has authored some papers with academic researchers.

His blog, Watts Up With That?, bills itself as the world's most viewed sight on global warming and climate change. Watts believes all climate warming data, Muller's included, is off because weather stations where temperatures are recorded have soaked up heat from their surroundings.

ANTHONY WATTS, Meteorologist: A brick building that's been out in the summer sun, you stand next to it at night, you can feel the heat radiating off of it. That's a heat sink effect. We have got more freeways, you know, more airports. We have got more buildings.

Yes, we have some global warming. It's clear the temperature has gone up in the last 100 years, but what percentage of that is from carbon dioxide and what percentage of that is from the changes in the local and measurement environment?

SPENCER MICHELS: He also thinks believers have a hidden agenda.

ANTHONY WATTS: Global warming has become essentially a business in its own right. There are whole divisions of universities that are set up to study this factor. And so there's lots of money involved. And so I think that there`s a tendency to want to keep that going and not really look at what might be different.

SPENCER MICHELS: It's a charge climate change believers say is totally false. But many do agree with Watts' criticism of Muller for presenting his report in a newspaper, rather than in a scientific journal.

ANTHONY WATTS: He has not succeeded in terms of how science views, you know, a successful inquiry. His papers have not passed peer review. [...]

SPENCER MICHELS: And polls conducted by Gallup and other news organizations suggest the issue ranks lower on voters' top priorities. Watts says polls can be manipulated by how the question is asked. He's worried that those who believe in manmade climate change will have their way in Washington.

ANTHONY WATTS: Some of the issues have been oversold. And they have been oversold because they allow for more regulation to take place. And so the people that like more regulation use global warming as a tool as a means to an end. And so, as a result, we might be getting more regulation and more taxes that really aren't rooted in science, but more in politics.

Pretty innocuous stuff. In fact, the entire segment was surprisingly balanced offering views from both sides of this contentious debate.

And therein lies the problem for climate alarmists, especially as a blog was posted by Michels with video including a more extensive discussion with Watts:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sent a response to PBS:

The American public can be confident in NOAA’s long-standing surface temperature record, one of the world’s most comprehensive, accurate and trusted data sets. This record has been constructed through many innovative methods to test the robustness of the climate data record developed and made openly available for all to inspect by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Numerous peer-reviewed studies conclusively show that U.S. temperatures have risen and continue to rise with recent widespread record-setting temperatures in the USA. There is no doubt that NOAA’s temperature record is scientifically sound and reliable. To ensure accuracy of the record, scientists use peer-reviewed methods to account for all potential inaccuracies in the temperature readings such as changes in station location, instrumentation and replacement and urban heat effects.

Specifically, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center published a scientific peer-reviewed paper (Menne, et al., 2010) that compared trends from stations that were considered well-sited and stations that received lower ratings on siting conditions, which found that the U.S. average temperature trend is not inflated by poor station siting. A subsequent research study led by university and private sector scientists reached the same conclusion (Fall et al. 2011). Additionally, the Department of Commerce Inspector General reviewed the US Historical Climatology Network dataset in July 2010 and concluded that “the respondents to our inquiries about the use of and adjustments to the USHCN data generally expressed confidence in the [USHCN] Version 2 dataset.”

Looking ahead to the next century, NOAA has implemented the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) â€" with 114 stations across the contiguous United States located in pristine, well-sited areas. Comparing several years of trends from the well-sited USCRN stations with USHCN shows that the temperature trends closely correspond â€" again validating the accuracy of the USHCN U.S. temperature record.

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And that brought out the zealots. Climate Progress's Joe Romm was global warming alarmist on the spot:

If you happened to be watching the PBS News Hour tonight, you probably thought the show had been hijacked by Fox News. At first, their climate segment seemed to be about Koch-funded former “skeptic” Richard Muller and his conversion to scientific reality.

But then PBS decided that the way to “balance” a former skeptic who merely confirmed what climate scientists have demonstrated repeatedly for decades was by quoting nonsense from Sen. James Inhofe and then giving an extended interview to former TV weatherman and current A-list disinformer Anthony Watts.

The New York Times' Andrew Revkin observed (HT Tom Nelson):

Surreally softball @newshour Q&A with @Wattsupwiththat’s A. Watts. For starters, might have been worth asking about research showing Watts stock-in-trade surface station issues don’t significantly affect global warming finding.

The propagandists at DeSmogBlog followed (HT Climate Depot):

PBS â€" the network that conservatives have regularly attacked for “liberal bias” for more than 40 years â€" finally put that myth to rest tonight by airing a one-sided interview with climate change denier Anthony Watts. The former weatherman-turned business owner and blogger Watts, was given close to ten minutes of uncontested airtime to spout his disinformation about climate change, without any retorts from actual climate scientists.

The global warming advocacy group Forecast the Facts published a petition "calling on the PBS ombudsman to immediately investigate how this segment came to be aired and recommend corrective action to make sure a journalistic abomination like this never happens again":

Immediately investigate the NewsHour segment featuring climate change denier and conspiracy theorist Anthony Watts for violations of PBS standards on accuracy, integrity, and transparency, and recommend corrective action to ensure that such reporting never again occurs on PBS.

The George Soros-funded shills at Media Matters predictably joined in:

Last night, PBS NewsHour turned to meteorologist and climate change contrarian Anthony Watts to "counterbalance" the mainstream scientific opinions presented by the program. This false balance is a disservice to PBS' viewers, made worse by the program's failure to explain Watts' connection to the Heartland Institute, an organization that receives funding from some corporations with a financial interest in confusing the public on climate science.

While PBS mentioned that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that manmade global warming is occurring, it did not reflect this consensus by giving significant airtime to Watts' contrarian views. The segment presented Watts as the counterbalance to scientists that believe in manmade global warming -- every time a statement that reflects the scientific consensus was aired, in came Watts to cast doubt in viewers' minds. As 66 percent of Americans incorrectly think that "there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening," news organizations need to be careful not to contribute to this confusion.

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The far-left Huffington Post also weighed in:

A recent report from "PBS NewsHour" on climate change has drawn sharp criticism from climate groups that feel it provides a false sense of debate around the facts of climate change.

Despite PBS' acknowledgement that climate scientists almost unanimously concur that manmade climate change is occurring, critics charge that featuring Watts "propagates confusion" and obscures the distinction between a scientific consensus and a very small, but vocal, minority who has a vested interest in this confusion.

All this pressure led Michels to publish what almost reads like an apology Tuesday:

Anything dealing with climate change is bound to provoke an argument. And our story on Berkeley physicist Richard Muller's recent conversion to a believer in man-made global warming, which he made in an op-ed in the New York Times, certainly stirred the pot. In addition to preparing a video story on the PBS NewsHour, I had written a blog that included extended remarks from Anthony Watts, a well-known blogger and prominent voice in the skeptic community. Watts -- a former California TV weatherman who runs a company that provides weather data to TV stations -- says he doesn't completely discount global warming, but he says that much of the data recording temperatures are flawed because the stations are in areas like urban settings which retain heat and therefore read too high.

The idea of the online post -- in part -- was to let the audience hear more about the views of a prominent voice from the community of skeptics. In the past, we have on occasion provided a more expansive view from the overwhelming majority of climate scientists who say climate change is real, an ever-growing problem and one that is getting significantly worse because of our own contribution to greenhouse gases. (In fact, my colleague Hari Sreenivasan posted links to some of that prior reporting earlier today.) We thought the online post with Watts would provide a chance for viewers to hear more about the skeptical perspective than we have done recently.

That said -- and as many of you wrote us to complain -- we should have not ONLY posted additional comments from Watts' perspective.

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So Michels decided to publish numerous quotes and videos from global warming alarmists to counter Watts's position including NOAA's statement.

What Michels and PBS seem to misunderstand is that the public practically only gets such views from America's media. It was therefore refreshing to see a segment that actually had some balance.

Sadly, the global warming skeptics don't want that, and PBS caved to the pressure.

Regardless, kudos go out to Watts for continuing to fight the good fight. His website Watts Up With That? is a daily must-read for those looking to keep truly informed on this subject.

Here's the full transcript of this segment:

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now to the debate over the magnitude of climate change, its impact, and the human role in it.

Typically, the battle plays out among prominent climate scientists and a vocal group of skeptics. But one skeptic`s recent public conversion is adding new fuel to that fire and sparking criticism from both sides.

"NewsHour" correspondent Spencer Michels has the story.

SPENCER MICHELS: Physicist Richard Muller and his daughter, Elizabeth, a mathematician, are not exactly household names.

But in the world of climate change, where most scientists and a much smaller group of skeptics remain bitterly divided over their assessment of what`s happening to the planet, Richard Muller has long been on the side of those who deny climate change is happening.

So, when he published an op-ed in The New York Times last month saying he was no longer a skeptic, it captured national attention and sparked angry reaction on both sides of the climate fence. Perhaps most disturbing to some of his former allies was this conclusion:

RICHARD MULLER, University of California, Berkeley: In our world, we attribute the warming from 1753 to the present essentially exclusively to humans -- not mostly, but exclusively.

SPENCER MICHELS: Even those skeptics who accept that the climate is changing attribute it to natural cycles, but Muller even claimed his study was more conclusive in that regard than any that came before.

RICHARD MULLER: We really are in some sense coming out with a stronger conclusion than the prior group had come out with.

SPENCER MICHELS: Working out of their house in Berkeley, where Muller is a physics professor at the University of California, the Mullers formed the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project.

Using funds partly supplied by the Koch brothers, who have also funded skeptical organizations like the Heartland Institute, the Mullers had long analyzed temperature data others had collected. But, for years, they said they hadn`t trusted that data.

RICHARD MULLER: I think many of the people working on this had convinced themselves that global warming was real and had lost some of their objectivity.

SPENCER MICHELS: But in their op-ed, the Mullers said that their latest research showed that the data from other climate change scientists was by and large correct.

ELIZABETH MULLER, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project: We used all of the data, or essentially all of the data, five times more than any other group had done. And after having done all of that, we determined that the previous -- the previous studies on global warming had been about right. There was global warming of about one degree Celsius in the past 50 years. And that was a big surprise to us.

SPENCER MICHELS: The conclusion about a warming climate due to human actions matched what many other climate change believers have been saying, including William Collins, a senior scientist at Lawrence-Berkeley Laboratory. He acknowledges that natural warming and cooling periods have occurred for eons, but the warming occurring now is off rhythm.

WILLIAM COLLINS, Senior Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: What we`re seeing now is occurring much faster. Rather than happening over tens of thousands of years, we`re seeing very rapid change occurring on just the time scale of a single century.

This timeline is showing how the temperature all over the globe has changed since the beginning of the 20th century. Look at how warm California has gotten, four or five degrees hotter than our historical climate.

SPENCER MICHELS: And, Collins concludes, man is a big contributor.

WILLIAM COLLINS: What man has been doing is enhancing the greenhouse effect by taking carbon dioxide that was formed over the last half-a- billion years and releasing that carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas, back into the Earth`s atmosphere.

SPENCER MICHELS: Yet, many of those believers were annoyed that Muller`s conversion got more attention in the media than their reports have gotten in the past. They dismissed him as being publicity-hungry and adding nothing new to the debate.

Climate modeler and British Green Party member William Connolley called Muller`s study rubbish, saying they hadn`t added any knowledge to what had been done before. Skeptics were even more dismissive of Muller`s work.

Judith Curry, professor of earth sciences at Georgia Tech, who suspects natural variability accounts for climate change, not human- produced CO2, said Muller`s analysis is "way oversimplistic and not at all convincing."

Even former ally Anthony Watts thinks Muller got it wrong. Watts works five hours from Muller in Chico, California. There, he runs a company supplying data and display systems to television weather forecasters and private individuals. He was trained as a broadcast meteorologist, though he has authored some papers with academic researchers.

His blog, Watts Up With That?, bills itself as the world`s most viewed sight on global warming and climate change. Watts believes all climate warming data, Muller`s included, is off because weather stations where temperatures are recorded have soaked up heat from their surroundings.

ANTHONY WATTS, Meteorologist: A brick building that`s been out in the summer sun, you stand next to it at night, you can feel the heat radiating off of it. That`s a heat sink effect. We have got more freeways, you know, more airports. We have got more buildings.

Yes, we have some global warming. It`s clear the temperature has gone up in the last 100 years, but what percentage of that is from carbon dioxide and what percentage of that is from the changes in the local and measurement environment?

SPENCER MICHELS: He also thinks believers have a hidden agenda.

ANTHONY WATTS: Global warming has become essentially a business in its own right. There are whole divisions of universities that are set up to study this factor. And so there`s lots of money involved. And so I think that there`s a tendency to want to keep that going and not really look at what might be different.

SPENCER MICHELS: It`s a charge climate change believers say is totally false. But many do agree with Watts` criticism of Muller for presenting his report in a newspaper, rather than in a scientific journal.

ANTHONY WATTS: He has not succeeded in terms of how science views, you know, a successful inquiry. His papers have not passed peer review.

RICHARD MULLER: In science, peer review means you give talks to the public. You send your papers to colleagues around the world. That`s what I did. Before I wrote my op-ed, we put all of our papers available on the Web.

SPENCER MICHELS: But the fight over climate change is anything but academic. Whether the politicians listen to the 97 percent of scientists who say that it is real or they pay attention to the vocal community of skeptics will determine to a large extent what regulations and what laws get passed.

Neither presidential candidate is talking about climate change, but, in Congress, it`s a different story; 74 percent of U.S. Senate Republicans publicly question the science of global warming, including Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, who thinks it`s a hoax.

SEN. JAMES INHOFE (R), Oklahoma: Those people who really believe that world is coming to an end because of global warming, and that`s all due to manmade anthropogenic gases, we call those people alarmists.

SPENCER MICHELS: Polls show more than half the Republicans in the House are global warming skeptics. Many were elected with the Tea Party wave during the 2010 election.

In 2011, a Republican-dominated House committee defeated an amendment offered by Democrats simply acknowledging warming of the Earth.

Stanford University professor of communication and political science Jon Krosnick, who has polling on climate change for 15 years, thinks the skeptics are winning in Washington.

JON KROSNICK, Stanford University: The voices of skeptics on climate change are very loud in this country and particularly effective in Washington at the moment. But they`re a very, very small group.

Less than 10 percent of Americans are confidently skeptical about climate change at the moment. And yet that group expresses its points of view so often and so vociferously that I believe they have got Washington confused at the moment.

SPENCER MICHELS: He says his polls, taken nationwide, show many Americans still worry about climate change.

JON KROSNICK: From the very beginning, we were surprised that large majorities, and in some cases huge majorities of Americans, expressed what you might call green opinions on the issue. They said they thought the planet had been gradually warming over the last 100 years. They thought human activity was responsible for it. And they supported a variety of government actions because they saw it as a threat.

SPENCER MICHELS: Krosnick says that neither storms nor the recent drought that has been affecting the Midwest affect his poll numbers, which have remained steady for more than a decade.

However, other polls showed a significant decline in the number of Americans saying there is solid evidence global warming is occurring, a drop of 20 percent between 2008 and 2010, when belief started rising again.

And polls conducted by Gallup and other news organizations suggest the issue ranks lower on voters` top priorities. Watts says polls can be manipulated by how the question is asked. He`s worried that those who believe in manmade climate change will have their way in Washington.

ANTHONY WATTS: Some of the issues have been oversold. And they have been oversold because they allow for more regulation to take place. And so the people that like more regulation use global warming as a tool as a means to an end. And so, as a result, we might be getting more regulation and more taxes that really aren`t rooted in science, but more in politics.

SPENCER MICHELS: But Muller and others think action is exactly what is needed.

RICHARD MULLER: I expect we will have considerable warming. And I think, depending on the growth of China, between 20 years and 50 years from now, we will be experiencing weather that`s warmer than Homo sapiens ever experienced. And I tend to think that`s going to be bad and we should do something about it and we can do something about it.

SPENCER MICHELS: Doing something about global warming raises a host of other issues, including new regulations and the costs of reducing greenhouse gases, issues that inflame an already contentious debate.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Online, Spencer talks to climate skeptic Anthony Watts about politics and global warming.

Arctic ice melt indicates accelerated global warming, leading to severe winter ... - God Discussion (blog)

An area of Arctic sea ice the size of Canada and Alaska combined is gone.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an animation that shows the daily average loss of sea ice between 1979 and 2012. Scientists say the drastic decline is sign of long term global warming.

In March this year, it was reported that the last decade has been the hottest worldwide, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture released data showing that warmer weather plants are now thriving further north.


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In 2012, the rate of ice loss for August was 91,700 square kilometers (35,400 square miles) per day, the fastest observed for the month of August over the period of NOAA's satellite observations. Oceans are 30% more acidic now and the atmosphere is 5% wetter in the oceans.

The ice melting has sped up. Scientists are warning that storms in the winter this year will be more likely to be extreme and summers will be hotter.

Monday, the UK's Guardian reported that Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University is predicting the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years, which could lead to a global disaster.

As Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks points out, it does not matter whether global warming is the result of human activities or not â€" it is something that needs to be seriously addressed.


{video link}

Religious right and conservative activists in the United States argue that global warming is a myth. In 2010, for instance, the South Dakota legislature unanimously passed a resolution declaring that schools should teach that global warming is a scientific theory, not a scientific fact. A number of Republican state platforms referred to global warming as a myth this year, with Iowa's GOP declaring that "We believe that claims of human-caused global warming are based on fraudulent, inaccurate information and that legislation and policy based on this information is detrimental to the wellbeing of the United States. We deplore extremist scare tactics not based on scientific evidence. We recognize it as a plan to take our freedoms and liberties away from the people through legislation."

In 2010, religious right activists like Focus on the Family's Tom Minnery, the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins, the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission's Richard Land, Concerned Women for America's Wendy Wright, Home School Legal Defense Association's Michael Farris, National Religious Broadcasters' Frank Wright, WallBuilders' David Barton, and radio talk-show host Janet Parshall all teamed up to produce and appear in a documentary called "Resisting the Green Dragon" that warned that environmentalism represents "a great threat to society and the church" and called for "a biblical response to the times in which we live."


{video link}

God Discussion Reporter

Deborah is the owner and administrator of the site, starting it in February 2009. She received her business education at the University of Texas and operates a number of websites and small businesses. She hosts the God Discussion show and handles the site's technical work and editing.

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Shame on PBS (2) - Record-Searchlight (blog)

In the past six years, I have purchased over 200 books and over 20 documentaries on the science of global warming and climate change. I spent hundreds of dollars on the PBS website for most of my DVDs about the climate crisis. I bought them in the hopes that KIXE would allow me to underwrite a special hour on climate change to show the PBS documentaries but several overtures regarding this idea were ignored and I gave up.

One of those documentaries is NOVA's "Extreme Ice": "Follow photojournalist James Balog to some of the most remote and beautiful places on Earth as he documents the disappearance of an icy landscape that took thousands of years to form. An artist, scientist, explorer, and former mountain guide, Balog braves treacherous terrain to site his cameras in ideal locations to record the unfolding drama."

And there is "Global Warming: The Rising Storm". "The signs are alarming and everywhere. Storms are more intense, heat waves are more severe and long-lasting, polar sea ice is thinning and shrinking, and more and more animal species are in danger of extinction. Where are we headed with climate changes caused by global warming? Get a glimpse of the future and see what's in store for us in the years and decades to come."

And the Frontline/NOVA special, "Global Warming, What's Up With The Weather?" "The overwhelming majority of scientists agree: earth's temperature has risen during the past century. But is it due to man's use of fossil fuel energy? And if so, how can we prevent the catastrophic results that some scientists predict if global warming continues? In 'What's Up with the Weather?' NOVA and FRONTLINE join forces to investigate the science and politics of one of the most controversial issues of the 21st century: the truth about global warming."

And then we have the PBS Home Video on "e2/energy, the economies of being environmentally conscious."

"Global in scope and comprised of six 30-minute chapters filmed in HD, e² energy features the engineers, policymakers and innovations that are transforming energy availability and consumption. Each episode covers viable policy and technology alternatives to the fossil fuel culture. Episodes explore: California as a world leader in emissions control; transportation and the need for greater efficiencies; ethanol in Brazil and its future in the United States; distributed solar energy as a means to poverty alleviation in Bangladesh; community wind in Minnesota and its role in regional economic development; and the role of coal and nuclear power in our future energy mix. Solutions-oriented, the series illustrates the trials and trade-offs that any evolution in our global energy system will demand. e² energy is narrated by Morgan Freeman."

And then we have the American Experience/Frontline/NOVA special: "Becoming Green, Growing Environmental Awareness." "What will the car of the future be like? Can solar power help save the Earth from the ravages of global warming? Deadly flooding in Africa, catastrophic hurricanes in the U.S. record high temperatures worldwide, are these natural, temporary glitches in our global climate, or is the devastation the result of global warming? Join NOVA as they explore these topics."

And finally this: NOVA's "Solar Energy, Saved by the Sun." "Solar power has long been effective for small electronic devices and for a certain kind of individual who grooves on the sun. But as worldwide demand for electricity increases, so does the burning of fossil fuels to create it, which is contributing to global warming and the dangerous climate conditions that may result. This is forcing us to take a fresh look at a clean energy source with the potential to revolutionize power production."

Many PBS affiliates take their responsibility to educate the public about environmental issues very seriously. For example, the Oregon Public Broadcasting and Boise State Public Radio, Idaho Public Television, KCTS 9 Seattle, KUOW Puget Sound Public Radio, Northwest Public Radio and Television, Southern Oregon Public Television and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting all promote "EarthFix, News Fixed on the Environment."

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Judge rules in favor of former U-Va. professor in global warming case - Washington Post

The battle over global warming in a Prince William County Circuit Court, focused on renowned climate scientist Michael E. Mann, was either an assault on science or a search for the truth, depending on whose brief you were reading.

But after reading all the briefs, a judge ruled Monday that Mann’s e-mail correspondence was exempt from the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and did not have to be provided to the American Tradition Institute, which was trying to delve into the discussions and data behind Mann’s conclusions that humans are causing Earth to grow hotter.

(Tom Cogill/Photo courtesy of Tom Cogill) - Scientist and author Michael E. Mann.

The ruling is almost certain to be appealed, and retired Arlington Circuit Court Judge Paul Sheridan had told both sides that he wanted the case properly briefed and argued so that the record would be in order for the Virginia Supreme Court. But then Sheridan ruled orally from the bench Monday, rather than issuing a written opinion, and both sides were awaiting the hearing transcript before plotting their next step.

Mann issued a statement declaring, “A victory for science!” Now working at Penn State, Mann was doing climate research at U-Va. from 1999 to 2005, when he had voluminous correspondence with other climate researchers.

“This finding is a potentially important precedent,” Mann said, “as ATI and other industry-backed front groups continue to press their attacks on climate scientists through the abuse of public records and FOIA laws and the issuing of frivolous and vexatious demands for internal scholarly deliberations and personal correspondences.”

Sheridan ruled that Mann’s correspondence while a professor at U-Va. qualified as public records, but they were exempt from disclosure under one particular exclusion listed in the Freedom of Information law: “Data, records or information of a proprietary nature produced or collected by or for faculty or staff of public institutions of higher education . . . in the conduct of or as a result of study or research on medical, scientific, technical or scholarly issues . . . where such data, records or information has not been publicly released, published, copyrighted or patented.”

David Schnare, a former Environmental Protection Agency lawyer now representing ATI, said that while research was in process, the creative process should be protected. But once the research is published, the public should be entitled to see the process and data behind it.

Sheridan ruled that the FOIA exemption “is critical to protect the academic process,” Schnare said. “We agree that it is, but we believe the judge went too far and prevented all transparency. And we believe that’s improper.”

The suit was filed by Del. Robert Marshall (R-Prince William) after he and ATI made a FOIA request for Mann’s e-mails and learned that 12,000 e-mails were being withheld by the university. Marshall and ATI sued in Prince William, and all the judges recused, requiring Sheridan to be brought in.

Both sides filed voluminous briefs, and Mann was allowed to intervene in the case as a third party, although his lawyer and U-Va. worked together. The Union of Concerned Scientists filed an amicus brief in support of the university and Mann, and officials with the Association of American Universities and the American Council on Education, as well as various U-Va. professors, filed affidavits saying that releasing Mann’s e-mails would have a chilling effect on academic research.

Mann argued that his e-mails were not prepared in the conduct of public business, but were internal deliberations between scientists. In his own affidavit, Mann said that a prior release of some of his e-mails in an episode in England caused him to “endure countless verbal attacks upon my professional reputation, my honesty, my integrity, even my life and liberty.”

Schnare argued in his main brief that as a state employee, Mann’s correspondence was state property and had no expectation of privacy. He noted that the prior release of Mann’s e-mails had not chilled his communications or his career; he published a book, “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars” earlier this year.

Sheridan listened to about four hours of oral argument Monday before ruling. Schnare said he would have to review the transcript of Sheridan’s ruling before deciding what aspects to appeal. Sheridan had earlier rejected ATI’s argument that releasing the e-mails to Mann constituted a waiver of the FOIA exclusion.

Madelyn Wessel, associate general counsel for U-Va., said the FOIA exclusion the university used to withhold the e-mails “had no time limit,” regardless of the publication status of the research, and “thus our position that we can protect this material permanently was, I believe, validated.”

After Sheridan listed his reasons for dismissing the suit, he asked U-Va. to prepare an order reflecting the decision. The transcript of Sheridan’s ruling from the bench “will essentially become the decision,” Wessel said.

Aerosmith Cooks Up More 'Global Warming' Tour Dates - Billboard

Aerosmith has announced the second leg of its "Global Warming" tour. The rock act's latest jaunt picks up in Oklahoma City on November 8, and will travel through North America until wrapping up Dec. 13 in Nashville.

The 14-date run will including opening sets from Cheap Trick, with tickets on sale through Live National on Monday, Sept. 24. The arena tour will see Aerosmith in major venues including New York's Madison Square Garden and Los Angeles' Staples Center, among others.

The band will be playing familiar hits as well as tracks from the group's upcoming studio album "Music From Another Dimension," due Nov. 6 on Columbia Records in advance of the new dates.

See Aerosmith's upcoming "Global Warming" tour dates below:

11/8: Chesapeake Energy Arena - Oklahoma City, OK
11/11: INTRUST Bank Arena - Wichita, KS
11/14: Spring Center - Kansas City, MO
11/16: Frank Erwin Center - Austin, TX
11/20: Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
11/23: Ravel Resorts - Ovation Hall - Atlantic City, NJ
11/25: Nationwide Arena - Columbus, Ohio
11/27: Air Canada Centre - Toronto, ONT
12/1: MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, NV
12/3: STAPLES Center - Los Angeles, CA
12/6: New Orleans Arena - New Orleans, LA
12/9: BB&T Center - Fort Lauderdale, FL
12/11: Tampa Bay Times Forum - Tampa, FL
12/13: Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

McRib delayed from McDonald's until late 2012: blame global warming... - Jackson Clarion Ledger

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Arctic sea ice thaw may be accelerated by oil, shipping - Reuters

The sun sets over Arctic ice near the 2011 Applied Physics Laboratory Ice Station north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska in this March 18, 2011 picture. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

The sun sets over Arctic ice near the 2011 Applied Physics Laboratory Ice Station north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska in this March 18, 2011 picture.

Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson

OSLO | Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:46pm EDT

OSLO (Reuters) - Local pollution in the Arctic from shipping and oil and gas industries, which have expanded in the region due to a thawing of sea ice caused by global warming, could further accelerate that thaw, experts say.

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) said there was an urgent need to calculate risks of local pollutants such as soot, or "black carbon", in the Arctic. Soot darkens ice, making it soak up more of the sun's heat and quickening a melt.

Companies such as Shell, which this week gave up a push to find oil this year in the Chukchi Sea as the winter closed in, Exxon or Statoil say they are using the cleanest available technologies.

But the risks of even small amounts of pollution on the Arctic Ocean, emitted near ice with little dispersal by winds, have not been fully assessed.

"A lot of the concerns need urgent evaluation," said Nick Nuttall, spokesman of Naibori-based UNEP, referring to issues such as flaring of gas or fuels used by vessels in the Arctic.

"There is a grim irony here that as the ice melts...humanity is going for more of the natural resources fuelling this meltdown," he said. Large amounts of soot in the Arctic come from more distant sources such as forest fires or industry.

The extent of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean has shrunk this summer to the smallest since satellite records began in the 1970s, eclipsing a 2007 low. The melt is part of a long-term retreat blamed by a U.N. panel on man-made global warming, caused by use of fossil fuels.

"We're working to get a better documentation of the risks of black carbon in the Arctic," said Lars-Otto Reiersen, head of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), part of the Arctic Council.

An AMAP report last year said that "regulation of black carbon production from all sources, especially those resulting locally from activities in the Arctic, is required at all scales."

400 FIELDS

More than 400 oil and gas fields within the Arctic region were developed by 2007, according to AMAP, mostly in West Siberia in Russia and in Alaska. Most of the undiscovered oil and gas is now estimated to be offshore.

Soot is an extra problem for planners, adding to risks such as of an oil blowout or a shipwreck. The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization is trying to work out a new "Polar Code" that might tighten everything from emissions to hull standards.

Still, for shipping, use of the Arctic route may be less damaging overall in terms of global warming, including soot, since it is a short-cut between some Atlantic and Pacific ports. That means ships burn much less fuel on the route.

"We are working on the net effect of the Arctic route compared to the Suez Canal," said Jan Fuglestvedt, of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.

In 2009, the Bremen-based Beluga Group sailed from South Korea to Rotterdam across the Arctic, cutting 4,000 nautical miles off the route via Suez. This year, for instance, an icebreaker became the first Chinese vessel to cross the ocean.

One study indicated that increased use of the Arctic route might limit carbon dioxide emissions for global shipping by 2.9 million tons a year by 2050, or 0.1 percent, compared to use of the Suez Canal.

"If the Arctic route is really open by then it may reduce carbon emissions a bit on the global scale," said Leif Ingolf Eide, an author of the study at Norwegian-based risk management group DnV. The study did not assess soot, he said.

In a 2011 report, UNEP estimated that a global crackdown on soot, methane and ozone could slow global warming by 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9F). It would also protect human health and promote crop growth.

Almost 200 nations have agreed to limit climate change to below 2 degrees C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, seeing it as a threshold to dangerous changes such as more droughts, floods or rising sea levels.

(Reporting By Alister Doyle; Editing by Rosalind Russell)


MIT Study: For Every 1 Degree C Rise In Temperature, Tropical Regions Will ... - ThinkProgress

by Jennifer Chu, via MIT News

Extreme precipitation in the tropics comes in many forms: thunderstorm complexes, flood-inducing monsoons and wide-sweeping cyclones like the recent Hurricane Isaac.

Global warming is expected to intensify extreme precipitation, but the rate at which it does so in the tropics has remained unclear. Now an MIT study has given an estimate based on model simulations and observations: With every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, the study finds, tropical regions will see 10 percent heavier rainfall extremes, with possible impacts for flooding in populous regions.

“The study includes some populous countries that are vulnerable to climate change,” says Paul O’Gorman, the Victor P. Starr Career Development Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, “and impacts of changes in rainfall could be important there.”

O’Gorman found that, compared to other regions of the world, extreme rainfall in the tropics responds differently to climate change. “It seems rainfall extremes in tropical regions are more sensitive to global warming,” O’Gorman says. “We have yet to understand the mechanism for this higher sensitivity.”

Results from the study are published online this week in the journal Nature Geoscience.

A warm rain will fall

Global warming’s effect on rainfall in general is relatively well-understood: As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere, they increase the temperature, which in turn leads to increases in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. When storm systems develop, the increased humidity prompts heavier rain events that become more extreme as the climate warms.

Scientists have been developing models and simulations of Earth’s climate that can be used to help understand the impact of global warming on extreme rainfall around the world. For the most part, O’Gorman says, existing models do a decent job of simulating rainfall outside the tropics â€" for instance, in mid-latitude regions such as the United States and Europe. In those regions, the models agree on the rate at which heavy rains intensify with global warming.

However, when it comes to precipitation in the tropics, these models, O’Gorman says, are not in agreement with one another. The reason may come down to resolution: Climate models simulate weather systems by dividing the globe into a grid, with each square on the grid representing a wide swath of ocean or land. Large weather systems that span multiple squares, such as those that occur in the United States and Europe in winter, are relatively easy to simulate. In contrast, smaller, more isolated storms that occur in the tropics may be trickier to track.

An intensity of extremes

To better understand global warming’s effect on tropical precipitation, O’Gorman studied satellite observations of extreme rainfall between the latitudes of 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south â€" just above and below the Equator. The observations spanned the last 20 years, the extent of the satellite record. He then compared the observations to results from 18 different climate models over a similar 20-year period.

“That’s not long enough to get a trend in extreme rainfall, but there are variations from year to year,” O’Gorman says. “Some years are warmer than others, and it’s known to rain more overall in those years.”

This year-to-year variability is mostly due to El Niño â€" a tropical weather phenomenon that warms the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño causes localized warming and changes in rainfall patterns and occurs independent of global warming.

Looking through the climate models, which can simulate the effects of both El Niño and global warming, O’Gorman found a pattern. Models that showed a strong response in rainfall to El Niño also responded strongly to global warming, and vice versa. The results, he says, suggest a link between the response of tropical extreme rainfall to year-to-year temperature changes and longer-term climate change.

O’Gorman then looked at satellite observations to see what rainfall actually occurred as a result of El Niño in the past 20 years, and found that the observations were consistent with the models in that the most extreme rainfall events occurred in warmer periods. Using the observations to constrain the model results, he determined that with every 1 degree Celsius rise under global warming, the most extreme tropical rainfall would become 10 percent more intense â€" a more sensitive response than is expected for nontropical parts of the world.

“Unfortunately, the results of the study suggest a relatively high sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming,” O’Gorman says. “But they also provide an estimate of what that sensitivity is, which should be of practical value for planning.”

The results of the study are in line with scientists’ current understanding of how global warming affects rainfall, says Richard Allan, an associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading in England. A warming climate, he says, adds more water vapor to the atmosphere, fueling more intense storm systems.

“However, it is important to note that computer projections indicate that although the rainfall increases in the wettest regions â€" or similarly, the wet season â€" the drier parts of the tropics … will become drier still,” Allan says. “So policymakers may have to plan for more damaging flooding, but also less reliable rains from year to year.”

This piece was originally published at MIT News and was reprinted with permission.

Arctic sea ice thaw may be accelerated by oil, shipping - Chicago Tribune


OSLO (Reuters) - Local pollution in the Arctic from shipping and oil and gas industries, which have expanded in the region due to a thawing of sea ice caused by global warming, could further accelerate that thaw, experts say.

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) said there was an urgent need to calculate risks of local pollutants such as soot, or "black carbon", in the Arctic. Soot darkens ice, making it soak up more of the sun's heat and quickening a melt.

Companies such as Shell, which this week gave up a push to find oil this year in the Chukchi Sea as the winter closed in, Exxon or Statoil say they are using the cleanest available technologies.

But the risks of even small amounts of pollution on the Arctic Ocean, emitted near ice with little dispersal by winds, have not been fully assessed.

"A lot of the concerns need urgent evaluation," said Nick Nuttall, spokesman of Naibori-based UNEP, referring to issues such as flaring of gas or fuels used by vessels in the Arctic.

"There is a grim irony here that as the ice melts...humanity is going for more of the natural resources fuelling this meltdown," he said. Large amounts of soot in the Arctic come from more distant sources such as forest fires or industry.

The extent of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean has shrunk this summer to the smallest since satellite records began in the 1970s, eclipsing a 2007 low. The melt is part of a long-term retreat blamed by a U.N. panel on man-made global warming, caused by use of fossil fuels.

"We're working to get a better documentation of the risks of black carbon in the Arctic," said Lars-Otto Reiersen, head of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), part of the Arctic Council.

An AMAP report last year said that "regulation of black carbon production from all sources, especially those resulting locally from activities in the Arctic, is required at all scales."

400 FIELDS

More than 400 oil and gas fields within the Arctic region were developed by 2007, according to AMAP, mostly in West Siberia in Russia and in Alaska. Most of the undiscovered oil and gas is now estimated to be offshore.

Soot is an extra problem for planners, adding to risks such as of an oil blowout or a shipwreck. The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization is trying to work out a new "Polar Code" that might tighten everything from emissions to hull standards.

Still, for shipping, use of the Arctic route may be less damaging overall in terms of global warming, including soot, since it is a short-cut between some Atlantic and Pacific ports. That means ships burn much less fuel on the route.

"We are working on the net effect of the Arctic route compared to the Suez Canal," said Jan Fuglestvedt, of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.

In 2009, the Bremen-based Beluga Group sailed from South Korea to Rotterdam across the Arctic, cutting 4,000 nautical miles off the route via Suez. This year, for instance, an icebreaker became the first Chinese vessel to cross the ocean.

One study indicated that increased use of the Arctic route might limit carbon dioxide emissions for global shipping by 2.9 million tons a year by 2050, or 0.1 percent, compared to use of the Suez Canal.

"If the Arctic route is really open by then it may reduce carbon emissions a bit on the global scale," said Leif Ingolf Eide, an author of the study at Norwegian-based risk management group DnV. The study did not assess soot, he said.

In a 2011 report, UNEP estimated that a global crackdown on soot, methane and ozone could slow global warming by 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9F). It would also protect human health and promote crop growth.

Almost 200 nations have agreed to limit climate change to below 2 degrees C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, seeing it as a threshold to dangerous changes such as more droughts, floods or rising sea levels.

(Reporting By Alister Doyle; Editing by Rosalind Russell)

As The Temperature Rises, So Too Does Tropical Rainfall - RedOrbit

April Flowers for redOrbit.com â€" Your Universe Online

Extreme precipitation events in the tropics can come in many forms; thunderstorm complexes, flood-inducing monsoons and wide-sweeping cyclones like the recent Hurricane Isaac.

Scientists expect global warming to intensify extreme precipitation, but the rate of intensification in the tropics remains unclear. A new study from MIT, published online this week in Nature Geoscience, gives an estimate based on model simulations and observations.

The study finds that with every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, tropical regions will see 10 percent heavier rainfall extremes, with possible impacts for flooding in populous regions.

“The study includes some populous countries that are vulnerable to climate change,” says Paul O’Gorman, the Victor P. Starr Career Development Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, “and impacts of changes in rainfall could be important there.”

Compared to other regions of the world, extreme rainfall in the tropics responds differently to climate change.

“It seems rainfall extremes in tropical regions are more sensitive to global warming,” O’Gorman says. “We have yet to understand the mechanism for this higher sensitivity.”

The impact that global warming has on rainfall in general is relatively well-understood. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere increase the temperature, which in turn leads to increases in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. When storm systems develop, the increased humidity prompts heavier rain events that become more extreme as the climate warms.

To help understand this phenomenon, scientists around the world have been developing models and simulations of Earth’s climate to show the impact of global warming on extreme rainfall around the world. For the most part, existing models do a decent job of simulating rainfall outside the tropics â€" for instance, in mid-latitude regions such as the United States and Europe. In those regions, the models agree on the rate at which heavy rains intensify with global warming.

When it comes to rainfall in the tropics, these models are not in agreement with one another. The reason may be resolution. Climate models simulate weather systems by dividing the globe into a grid, with each square on the grid representing a wide swath of ocean or land. Large weather systems that span multiple squares, such as those that occur in the United States and Europe in winter, are relatively easy to simulate; in contrast, however, smaller, more isolated storms that occur in the tropics may be trickier to track.

O’Gorman studied satellite observations of extreme rainfall between the latitudes of 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south â€" just above and below the equator. The observations spanned the extent of the satellite record, covering the last 20 years. These were compared to the observations from 18 different climate models over a similar 20-year period.

“That’s not long enough to get a trend in extreme rainfall, but there are variations from year to year,” O’Gorman says. “Some years are warmer than others, and it’s known to rain more overall in those years.”

Most of the blame for this year-to year-variability rests on El Nino â€" a tropical weather phenomenon that warms the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino causes localized warming, changes in rainfall patterns, and occurs independent of global warming.

O’Gorman found a pattern looking through climate models that can simulate the effects of both El Nino and global warming. Models that showed a strong response in rainfall to El Niño also responded strongly to global warming, and vice versa. The results, he says, suggest a link between the response of tropical extreme rainfall to year-to-year temperature changes and longer-term climate change.

Actual rainfall satellite data over the past 20 years was compared to the model predictions for rainfall caused by El Nino and the results were consistent. The most extreme rainfall events occurred in warmer periods. Using the observations to constrain the model results, he determined that with every 1 degree Celsius rise under global warming, the most extreme tropical rainfall would become 10 percent more intense â€" a more sensitive response than is expected for nontropical parts of the world.

“Unfortunately, the results of the study suggest a relatively high sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming,” O’Gorman says. “But they also provide an estimate of what that sensitivity is, which should be of practical value for planning.”

The results of the study are in line with scientists’ current understanding of how global warming affects rainfall, says Richard Allan, an associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading in England. A warming climate, he says, adds more water vapor to the atmosphere, fueling more intense storm systems.

“However, it is important to note that computer projections indicate that although the rainfall increases in the wettest regions â€" or similarly, the wet season â€" the drier parts of the tropics … will become drier still,” Allan says. “So policymakers may have to plan for more damaging flooding, but also less reliable rains from year to year.”

Global warming foreign to many - Vancouver Sun

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Global warming drives extreme rainfall in the tropics - Summit County Citizens Voice

Researchers estimate 10 percent increase in rainfall during extreme events for every 1-degree Celsius of warming

Rainfall amounts during extreme weather events in the tropics are expected to increase by 10 percent for every 1-degree Celsius rise in temperatures. Photo by Bob Berwyn.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY â€" Researchers at MIT say extreme rainfall in the Earth’s tropical regions appear to be more sensitive to global warming than other parts of the world. While they don’t fully understand the mechanism for that higher sensitivity, they estimate that rainfall amounts during extreme weather events â€" monsoons, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones â€" are likely to increase by 10 percent for every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperatures.

“The study includes some populous countries that are vulnerable to climate change … and impacts of changes in rainfall could be important there,” said Paul O’Gorman, assistant professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT.

In general, most climate models agree that a warming atmosphere hold more water vapor. When storm systems develop, the increased humidity prompts heavier rain events that become more extreme as the climate warms.

The challenge has been to quantify that effect. For the most part, existing models do a decent job of simulating rainfall outside the tropics â€" for instance, in mid-latitude regions such as the United States and Europe,” O’Gorman said. In those regions, the models agree on the rate at which heavy rains intensify with global warming.

However, when it comes to precipitation in the tropics the models often don’t agree. The reason may come down to resolution, according to O’Gorman, who explained that most models simulate weather systems by dividing the globe into a grid, with each square on the grid representing a wide swath of ocean or land. Large weather systems that span multiple squares, such as those that occur in the United States and Europe in winter, are relatively easy to simulate. In contrast, smaller, more isolated storms that occur in the tropics may be trickier to track.

So the MIT researchers zoomed in on extreme rainfall between the latitudes of 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south â€" just above and below the Equator. Using satellite observations from the past 20 years, O’Gorman compared the observations to results from 18 different climate models over a similar 20-year period.

“That’s not long enough to get a trend in extreme rainfall, but there are variations from year to year,” O’Gorman says. “Some years are warmer than others, and it’s known to rain more overall in those years.”

This year-to-year variability is mostly due to El Niño â€" a tropical weather phenomenon that warms the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño causes localized warming and changes in rainfall patterns and occurs independent of global warming.

Looking through the climate models, which can simulate the effects of both El Niño and global warming, O’Gorman found a pattern. Models that showed a strong response in rainfall to El Niño also responded strongly to global warming, and vice versa. The results, he says, suggest a link between the response of tropical extreme rainfall to year-to-year temperature changes and longer-term climate change.

O’Gorman then looked at satellite observations to see what rainfall actually occurred as a result of El Niño in the past 20 years, and found that the observations were consistent with the models in that the most extreme rainfall events occurred in warmer periods. Using the observations to constrain the model results, he determined that with every 1 degree Celsius rise under global warming, the most extreme tropical rainfall would become 10 percent more intense â€" a more sensitive response than is expected for nontropical parts of the world.

“Unfortunately, the results of the study suggest a relatively high sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming,” O’Gorman said. “But they also provide an estimate of what that sensitivity is, which should be of practical value for planning.”

“However, it is important to note that computer projections indicate that although the rainfall increases in the wettest regions â€" or similarly, the wet season â€" the drier parts of the tropics … will become drier still,” Allan says. “So policymakers may have to plan for more damaging flooding, but also less reliable rains from year to year.”

Results from the study are published online this week in the journal Nature Geoscience.

39.586656 -106.092081

Monday, September 17, 2012

U.Va. wins key ruling in Prince William global warming-FOIA case - Washington Post (blog)


Scientist and author Michael E. Mann now works at Penn State University. His e-mails from his six years at the University of Virginia were being sought by groups skeptical of climate change. (Tom Cogill - TOM COGILL)
The battle over global warming in Prince William County Circuit Court, focused on renowned climate scientist Michael E. Mann, was either an assault on science or a search for the truth, depending on whose briefs you were reading. But after reading all the briefs, a judge ruled Monday that Mann’s e-mail correspondence was exempt from the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and did not have to be provided to the American Tradition Institute, which was trying to delve into the discussions and data behind Mann’s conclusions that humans are causing the Earth to grow hotter.

The ruling is almost certain to be appealed, and retired Arlington Circuit Court Judge Paul Sheridan had told both sides he wanted the case properly briefed and argued so that the record would be in order for the Virginia Supreme Court. But then Sheridan ruled orally from the bench Monday, rather than issue a written opinion, and both sides were awaiting the hearing transcript before plotting their next step.

Mann issued a statement declaring, “A victory for science!” Now working at Penn State, Mann was doing climate research at U.Va. from 1999 to 2005 when he had voluminous correspondence with other climate researchers.

“This finding is a potentially important precedent,” Mann said, “as ATI and other industry-backed front groups continue to press their attacks on climate scientists through the abuse of public records and FOIA laws and the issuing of frivolous and vexatious demands for internal scholarly deliberations and personal correspondences.”

Sheridan ruled that Mann’s correspondence while a professor at U.Va. qualified as public records, but they were exempt from disclosure under one particular exclusion listed in the Freedom of Information law: “Data, records or information of a proprietary nature produced or collected by or for faculty or staff of public institutions of higher education...in the conduct of or as a result of study or research on medical, scientific, technical or scholarly issues...where such data, records or information has not been publicly released, published, copyrighted or patented.”

David Schnare, the former EPA lawyer now representing ATI, said that while research was in process, the creative process should be protected. But once the research is published, the public should be entitled to see the process and data behind it.

Sheridan ruled that the FOIA exemption “is critical to protect the academic process,” Schnare said. “We agree that it is but we believe the judge went too far and prevented all transparency. And we believe that’s improper.”

The suit was filed by state Del. Robert Marshall (R-P.Wm.) after he and ATI made a FOIA request for Mann’s e-mails and learned that 12,000 e-mails were withheld by U.Va. Marshall and ATI sued in Prince William, and all the judges recused, requiring Sheridan to be brought in.

Both sides filed voluminous briefs, and Mann was allowed to intervene in the case as a third party, though his lawyer and U.Va. worked together. The Union of Concerned Scientists filed an amicus brief in support of U.Va. and Mann, and officials with the Association of American Universities, the American Council on Education as well as various U.Va. professors filed affidavits saying that releasing Mann’s e-mails would have a chilling effect on academic research.

Mann and U.Va. argued that his e-mails were not prepared in the conduct of public business, but were internal deliberations between scientists. In his own affidavit, Mann said that a prior release of some of his e-mails in an episode in England caused him to “endure countless verbal attacks upon my professional reputation, my honesty, my integrity, even my life and liberty.”

Schnare argued in his main brief that as a state employee, Mann’s correspondence was state properrty and had no expectation of privacy. He noted that the prior release of Mann’s e-mails had not chilled his communications or his career; he published a book, “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars” earlier this year.

Sheridan listened to about four hours of oral argument Monday before ruling. Schnare said he would have to review the transcript of Sheridan’s ruling before deciding what aspects to appeal.

Global Warming Alarmists Seek More Power, Not Emissions Reductions - Health Care News (blog)

[First posted at Forbes.]

As U.S. carbon dioxide emissions continue to decline, one would think global warming alarmists would celebrate the ongoing achievement. Instead, alarmists are ramping up their vitriol. The alarmists’ increasing vitriol reveals that for many alarmists, the true goal is not a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, but instead a transfer of wealth and power from individuals to government.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. carbon dioxide emissions during the first quarter of 2012 were the lowest since 1992. With more and more U.S. power plants switching from coal to natural gas, the decline is likely to continue and the reductions are likely to be permanent.

The decline in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions is striking when we compare U.S. emission trends to global emission trends.

In 2000, U.S. emissions totaled 5.9 billion metric tons, while global emissions totaled 23.7 billion metric tons. Accordingly, in 2000 the United States accounted for 25 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions.

By 2010, however, U.S. emissions fell to 5.6 billion metric tons, while global emissions rose to 31.8 billion metric tons. Accordingly, in 2010 the United States accounted for merely 18 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions.

If the U.S. emissions reductions in early 2012 hold throughout the year, they’ll likely fall to merely 15 percent of the global total.

By the end of the decade, U.S. emissions will most likely decline to approximately 12 percent of global emissions, or less than half the U.S. share in 2000.

Keeping in mind that the United States produces 23 percent of the world’s Gross Domestic Product , reducing U.S. emissions to 12-to-15 percent of the global total is quite impressive.

These reductions in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are taking place without all-intrusive, economy-wide, government-imposed restrictions. Yes, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations that economically punish coal power plants are somewhat responsible for the shift to natural gas power, but so too are technological advances and new natural gas discoveries that have dramatically reduced the price of natural gas.

If the alarmists’ true goal is significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions, they would acknowledge and celebrate these ongoing reductions. Instead, however, alarmists are doubling down on vitriol and hateful rhetoric.

Consider, for example, Bill Blakemore’s most recent column on the ABC News Nature and Environment webpage. Among other things, Blakemore writes that “a number of climate scientists have told this reporter they agree with those, including NASA scientist James Hansen, who charge fossil fuel CEOs are thus guilty of a ‘crime against humanity.’” The traditional punishment for “crimes against humanity” is execution.

Why is it that so many alarmists are ratcheting up their vitriol and hateful rhetoric precisely when U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly declining? The answer is the alarmists are motivated more by a desire to reshape society into a government-centered model than they are interested in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions are rapidly declining, yet money and power remains largely with the people rather than the government. Accordingly, activists ratchet up their hateful rhetoric.

For those who truly care about reducing carbon dioxide emissions, now is a time for celebration. For those who truly care about transferring money and power to government, now is a time to intensify their attacks.

Climate Change Skeptic Says Global Warming Crowd Oversells Its Message - PBS NewsHour (blog)

By: Spencer Michels

It was about 105 degrees in Chico, Calif., about three hours north of Sacramento, when we arrived at the offices of one of the nation's most read climate skeptics. Actually, Anthony Watts calls himself a pragmatic skeptic when it comes to global warming. Watts is a former television meteorologist, who has been studying climate change for years. He doesn't claim to be a scientist; he attended Purdue. He's the author of a blog, Watts Up with That?, which he calls the world's most viewed site on global warming. For a story I was working on for the PBS NewsHour, Watts was recommended by the Heartland Institute, a conservative, Chicago-based non-profit that is one of the leading groups that doubt that climate change -- if it exists -- is attributable to human activities.

Watts doesn't come across as a true believer or a fanatic. For one thing, he has built a business that caters to television stations and individuals who want accurate weather information and need displays to show their viewers. He has developed an array of high tech devices to disseminate weather data and put it on screens. He has several TV stations around the country as clients.

But Watts' reputation doesn't come from his business -- IntelliWeather -- but rather from his outspoken views on climate change. He says he's been gathering data for years, and he's analyzed it along with some academics. He used to think somewhat along the same lines as Richard Muller, the University of California physicist who recently declared he was no longer a skeptic on climate change. Muller had analyzed two centuries worth of temperature data and decided his former skepticism was misplaced: yes, the earth has been warming, and the reason is that humans are producing carbon dioxide that is hastening the warming the planet.

Watts doesn't buy Muller's analysis, since, he believes, it is based on faulty data. The big problem, as Watts sees it, is that the stations where temperatures are gathered are too close to urban developments where heat is soaked up and distorts the readings. So it looks like the earth is warming though it may not be, he says.

Read a transcript below.

SPENCER MICHELS: So let's start out with the basic idea that there's this debate in this country over global warming. There's some people who call it a complete hoax and there are some people who completely embrace it and so forth. Where do you stand in that spectrum?

ANTHONY WATTS: Well, I at one time was very much embracing the whole concept that we had a real problem, we had to do something about it. Back in 1988 James Hanson actually was the impetus for that for me in his presentation before Congress. But as I learned more and more about the issue, I discovered that maybe it's not as bad as it's made out to be. Some of it is hype, but there's also some data that has not been explored and there's been some investigations that need to be done that haven't been done. And so now I'm in the camp of we have some global warming. No doubt about it, but it may not be as bad as we originally thought because there are other contributing factors.

SPENCER MICHELS: What's the thing that bothers you the most about people who say there's lots of global warming?

ANTHONY WATTS: They want to change policy. They want to apply taxes and these kinds of things may not be the actual solution for making a change to our society.

SPENCER MICHELS: What are you saying? That they're biased essentially or motivated by something else? What?

ANTHONY WATTS: Tthere's a term that was used to describe this. It's called noble cause corruption. And actually I was a victim of that at one time, where you're so fervent you're in your belief that you have to do something. You're saving the planet, you're making a difference, you're making things better that you're so focused on this goal of fixing it or changing it that you kind of forget to look along the path to make sure that you haven't missed some things.

I started looking into the idea that weather stations have been slowly encroached upon by urbanization and sighting issues over the last century. Meaning that our urbanization affected the temperature. And this was something that was very clear if you looked at the temperature records. But what wasn't clear is how it affected the trend of temperatures. And so that's been something that I've been investigating. Anyone who's ever stood next to a building in the summertime at night, a brick building that's been out in the summer sun, you stand next to it at nigh,t you can feel the heat radiating off of it. That's a heat sync effect. And over the last 100 years our country, in fact the world, has changed. We've gone from having mostly a rural agrarian society to one that is more urban and city based and as a result the infrastructure has increased. We've got more freeways, you know more airports, we've got more buildings. Got more streets, all these things. Those are all heat syncs. During the day, solar insulation hits these objects and these surfaces and it stores heat in these objects. At night it releases that heat. Now if you are measuring temperature in a city that went from having uh maybe 10% of um, non-permeable surface to you know maybe 90% over 100 years, that's a heat sync effect and that should show up in the record. The problem is, is that it's been such a slow subtle change over the last 100 years. It's not easy to detect and that's been the challenge and that's what I've been working on.

SPENCER MICHELS: Well in a way you're saying that the records aren't accurate, the data isn't accurate.

ANTHONY WATTS: I'm saying that the data might be biased by these influences to a percentage. Yes, we have some global warming, it's clear the temperature has gone up in the last 100 years. But what percentage of that is from carbon dioxide? And what percentage of that is from changes in the local and measurement environment?

SPENCER MICHELS: I want to go back to what we were talking about a little bit earlier, the idea that there is, there are people who are sort of invested in promoting the fact that there is global warming. There's money involved and grants. Is that what you were saying? Maybe explain that.

ANTHONY WATTS: Well global warming had become essentially a business in its own right. There are NGOs, there are organizations, there are whole divisions of universities that have set up to study this, this factor, and so there's lots of money involved and then so I think that there's a tendency to want to keep that going and not really look at what might be different.

SPENCER MICHELS: Now Dr. Muller at the University of California Berkeley had similar concerns. Went back and looked at the data, took much more data than anybody else had, and concluded, well maybe there was some problems, but basically the conclusions were right. There is global warming and it comes from carbon dioxide which is meant, made by man. Do you buy that?

ANTHONY WATTS: Unfortunately he has not succeeded in terms of how science views, you know, a successful inquiry. His papers have not passed peer review. They had some problems. Some of the problems I identified, others have identified problems as well, for example, he goes much further back, back to about 1750 in terms of temperature. Well from my own studies, I know that temperature really wasn't validated and homogenized where everything's measured the same way until the weather bureau came into being about in 1890. Prior to that thermometers were hung in and exposed to the atmosphere all kinds of different ways. Some were hung under the shade of trees, some were on the north side of houses, some were out in the open in the sun, and so the temperature fluctuations that we got from those readings prior to 1890 was quite broad and I don't believe that provided representative signal because the exposure's all wrong. And Dr. Muller did not take any of that into account.

SPENCER MICHELS: His conclusion though is that basically global warming exists and that the scientists, no matter what the problems were, were pretty much right on.

ANTHONY WATTS: I agree with him that global warming exists. However, the ability to attribute the percentage of global warming to CO2 versus other man-made influences is still an open question.

SPENCER MICHELS: I want to ask you a little bit about attitudes towards this among the public. We talked to a public opinion specialist at Stanford who says there's been 80 percent belief in global warming and man-made global warming consistently over at least the last 15 years in this country. Do you buy his theory?

ANTHONY WATTS: Well I look at a number of opinion polls. You'll find a lot of them on my blog and that we've covered. And depending on how you ask the question we'll sometimes give you a different answer. My view is, is that the view of global warming peaked about at the time that Al Gore came out with his movie, An Inconvenient Truth. But ever since then other factors have kicked in. Climate Gate for example. And it has become less of an issue, in fact you hardly see politicians talking about it anymore, or pushing it as an issue. What's been happening now it's just become a regulation issue. It's gotten away from the political arena and into the bureaucratic regulation arena. And so people I believe based on the polls I've seen, aren't quite as believing as they used to be. And I think the trend is downward.

SPENCER MICHELS: What do you think is the upshot of your attitude toward this? Should the Congress, should the American public say, you know nothing's been proven yet. We should wait. Or should we go ahead with trying to solve what many people consider a really scary problem?

ANTHONY WATTS: Hmm...You mentioned a really scary problem and I think that's part of the issues. Some people don't respond well to scare tactics and there have been some scare tactics used by some of the proponents on the other side of the issue. And that's where the overselling of it comes in. But this is a slow problem and it requires a slow solution I believe. For example, our infrastructure for electricity and so forth and highways didn't happen in 5 years or 10 years. It happened over a century. We can't just rip all that up or change it in the space off five, 10 or 15 years because it'll be catastrophic to our economy. We need a slow change solution, one that is a solution that changes over time at about the same rate as climate change. More efficient technologies, new technologies, the use of more nuclear for example. There's a nuclear type of a reactor that's more safe called a, a liquid thorium reactor that China is jumping on right now. And we should be looking into things like that.

SPENCER MICHELS: Has this issue, I know you think it's been oversold and scare tactics have been used. Do you think it's become too politicized?

ANTHONY WATTS: Oh, it's definitely become too politicized. In fact, some of the scientists who are the leaders in the issue have become for lack of a better word, political tools on the issue.

SPENCER MICHELS: One final question, do you consider yourself a skeptic when it comes to global warming?

ANTHONY WATTS: I would call myself a pragmatic skeptic. Yes, we need to make some changes on our energy technology but more efficient technology's a good thing. For example, I have solar power on my own, you know, I have done energy reductions in my office and in my home to make things more efficient. So I think those are good things. Those are good messages that we should be embracing. But at the same time I think that some of the issues have been oversold, may have been oversold, because they allow for more regulation to take place. And so the people that like more regulation use global warming as a tool, as a means to an end. And so as a result, we might be getting more regulation and more taxes that really aren't rooted in science, but more in politics.